THE “COLD” BROTHER

Finally, the National Transitional Council (NTC) had overrun the Libyan capital of Tripoli and seized the compound of the Brother. The NTC and its sympathizers have been cautious in celebrating this feat for their main target is at large. Nobody seems to know where the BROTHER is currently staying (or hiding), albeit his periodic audio messages, reminiscent of former Al-Qaeda chief, Bin-Laden, encouraging remnants of his army to keep fighting. Many who have heard such “mockery of outburst” have questioned the mental equilibrium of the BROTHER.

 When the Arab or Jasmine spring begun in Tunisia and waded into Egypt, toppling President Ben-Ali and Hosni Mubarak, many political watchers predicted that the BROTHER will soon join the ranks of these “head boys”. So, when the agitations for real freedom begun in Benghazi and the Brother sent troops to quell the revolts coupled with the UN’s passage nom fly zone over Libya with the entry of NATO into the fray, the question was not whether the “King of kings” will exit but WHEN??

Many Pan -African “consciousness-ist” have questioned not the seeking of true liberation by the Libyan people from the claws of the BROTHER. Neither are they against the UN Resolution which sought to protect the Libyans. Nor NATO ensuring that the directive is respected. Most Africans are pissed by the unnecessary, unwarranted bombardment and killing of innocent Libyans; but most important, the arming of a disgruntled few to fight a “legitimate” government.

To them, Yes, the Brother has overstayed his welcome; ruling for over four decades. Yes;, his exercise of dictatorial tendencies, often to the point of dementia on his own people and critics is not to be tolerated in this new world order. Yes, some of his coverts and overt operations (Lockerbie bombing in 1988, support for Charles Taylor, Idi Amin and many more others.

But the impudence of NATO-led by Sarkozy ,someone the brother is alleged to have support his campaign and ascension to power  and David Cameron of UK, with surreptitious support from the US- to arm these rebels whiles ‘’paving’’ the way for them is dusting, reprehensible and intolerable.

Everybody agrees that the brother is a controversial figure. He is a fickling creature; dogmatic despot who abhors the west. He has problems with everyone except those “scared” of him. His antics betray him as a comic relief. He fell off with the West, Arab League. His unstableness is reflected even in his mode of dressing. The man went from wearing a full military uniform to a Bedouin drape with matching sunglasses which could make Bono envious.

But could the brother have pre-empted all these happenings like his compatriot in Algiers have succeeded at doing?  My candid answer is YES!! The brother could have if he had sat back, observed the changes in the geo-politics of the world and learnt a few things from his cronies on the continent.

The Brother for all his ‘deficiencies’ will be remembered as one of the few leaders in the world who held on to their oil resources and used it, judiciously for the benefit of his people without capitulating to the ‘’good old charade’’ of the West. He stood resolute, held the gauntlet whiles receiving pummeling from

the US and her cohorts. That wasn’t a mistake; at least other leaders who wear the communist strip (e.g. Hugo Chavez) learnt a bit from him.

However, there comes a time in history when the old ways need to give way to new things. That, the brother failed to realize-even if he did he failed or refused to dance to the new tune. All that the West wanted was a share in Libya’s oil resources (and that is a major reason for this invasion). His flirtations with the Left meant a big NO o them. Since then, several maneuverings and machinations have been employed to get rid of him but in all these he has survived and become more defiant.

Libya contributes 2% to the total oil produced in the world. The oil produced is state controlled. And with the insatiable demand for oil by these western nations particularly the US-who some analyst have inferred have oil and security as drivers of her foreign policy-getting the brother out means have a field day in that sector.

This posture by the West, specifically by Tony Blair and Berlusconi of UK and Italy respectively, following the release of Abdel Bassit Ali El Magrahi, jailed for his role in the Lockerbie bombing of the Pan Am flight baffled many watchers. This prompted the US to question the authenticity of the reasons adduced to release him out of prison.

The speculation was that the release of El-Magrehi was induced by a secret pact in which UKs BP stands to partake in oil business in Libya. Many therefore were unsurprised seeing Mr. (Tony) Blair hobnobbing with the brother few months after his (El Meghrahi’s) release, though doctors have predicted his death via prostrate cancer in less than 3 months, but he’s still alive.

 The mistake is why didn’t the Brother invite them earlier? If he had, all these victimization with its concomitant seepages would not have surfaced. If BP, Goil, ExxonMobil, Shell et al had been offered “invitation” to explore the oil resource of Libya, the Brother would still be smiling and seeing his succession plan to the hilt. The US, Britain, France or NATO I believe would not have had the courage to invade the Mediterranean city of Tripoli to violently attempt to usurp the Brother, knowing very well that their thirst for oil is tied to the apron of the Brother. Libya would have had the same baby-spanking Damascus is enjoying.

After being at the helm for over four decades, the Brother should have taken the steps at reforming the political landscape of his nation, similar to what Mikel Gorbachev did for Russia during the twilight of the Cold War. He should have chosen glasnost and perestroika over his “Green Book”. The Brother could have opened the political space by encouraging a free media, opposition parties, civil societies. Again, he should have introduced a constitution, promoted human rights, rule of law and democracy.

As Francis Fukuyama bluntly put it; “Liberal democracy has become so prestigious that even most authoritarians feel obliged to have elections”. This expression has been confirmed by the likes of Uganda, Tanzania, Zimbabwe, Ethiopia, Sudan etc. In such countries, elections are held but the incumbent always wins amidst complaints of electoral pilfering by both opposition and international election observers but in most cases, the doyens of democracy come to lightly condemn such irregularities but stick with these governments.

So in this vein, the Brother could have done the same as his compatriots Mubarak, Ben Ali, Musevini, Mugabe have been doing for decades winning 95% to 99% of votes cast in elections whiles teaching the opposition a little lesson in African politics and the response to the wailings of the opposition would have been met with no action, more talk. Don’t forget, should the opposition head to the courts, the courts are his.

The Brother sat aloof and took no note. And the worst came visiting. If the Brother had hit the runway, he would still have had his portrait adorning the streets of Tripoli, amidst the drinking of nice wines and admiring the dancing of Arabian belly dancing goddesses.

Another mishap was his continuous dealing with Russia via arms trading from the old block’s firmament. It is an undeniable fact that the Russians gave him succor during the early years of his revolution. He could have eaten with the West after a while by spending a certain percentage of his defense budget to procure arms from these western nations especially America.

Again, it shouldn’t have taken him that much long to have abandoned his nuclear ambition. Perhaps he should have deflated the fears of the West by jaw-jawing with them at coteries so they wouldn’t be hard on him. His blatant display of “anti-Western” rhetoric coupled with his nuclear ambition made him, in the eyes of the West, a threat to their survival and world security thus the need to “take” care of him by or through whatever means.

As the adage goes, you can’t eat your cake and have it. The rope has now become short and taunt choking the Brother. To die in the hands of the rebels is as shameful as a dog’s death so the Brother would prefer to die in battle and be recognized as a martyr. So here he hides at an unknown section of Libya urging his witling supporters to continue the fight all in the name of “Col. Brother Muammar Al-Qathafi; King of Kings of all Traditional African Rulers”   

swayekidd (c) 16-o9-2011